Seven months ago, when I first decided to follow Jeremy Tyler’s Japan adventure, I knew it would be interesting, but did not expect a season as wacky and turbulent as this one. As everyone knows, the Tokyo Apache ended their season prematurely as a result of the massive earthquakes and tsunami that rocked Japan in March.  This catastrophe ended a season that was different from the start. For instance, the Apache did not have a home floor for the first two and a half months of the season, so only played half the number of games as other teams as they played only their away games. But even stranger, in a land where interest in basketball is iffy at best, there was an ex-NBA coach (Bob Hill) with a team consisting of a former lottery pick (Robert Swift), a D-League veteran (Kendall Dartez), two big-time college ball players (Byron Eaton and Michael Chappell), an assortment of Japanese players, and Jeremy Tyler: the wild card.

The New York Times article about Tyler a few weeks ago was well done and analyzed the human side of Jeremy Tyler’s season in Japan. What they did not do was geek out and analyze his stats over the course of the season.  That is what I am going to do here.

This first table contains Tyler’s basic stats from this season.

The above stats do not really tell us that much regarding how Tyler’s season actually played out. We see that generally he scored and rebounded well but fouled and turned the ball over way too much. This is absolutely true; Bob Hill said as much in the Times article. But if we break things down a little further, the story of Tyler’s season becomes somewhat more interesting. In the two tables below you can see his season divided into three parts. This first table merely breaks the boxscore stats by the three time periods.

The following table shows his averages per 40 minutes, a statistic that gives a better understanding of how he was playing.

The first eight games were the honeymoon period for Tyler. Four of the games were against the Saitama Broncos and the Akita Northern Happinets, two of the worst teams in the league, both with relatively weak frontlines. The next 13 games were the low point of his year as Tyler struggled offensively and, as a result, saw increasingly less playing time. While the Times article mentions the February series against Akita as the turning point in the season, I think it is hard to ignore the sudden improvement in Tyler’s play that occurred the week before when Kendall Dartez left the Apache. Dartez’s departure coincided with an increase in Tyler’s efficiency and, ultimately, his minutes played. Watching the games, it is clear that Tyler thrived as Hill played him more at the 4 spot alongside Robert Swift at the 5. Tyler showed his versatility away from the basket, including a drastically improved outside shot. Tyler’s turnovers also dropped during this part of the season as he spent less time in the post getting double-teamed.

While seeing those statistics should give one a better impression of Tyler’s season, the stats are still relatively useless as we have no context to place them in. Tyler’s performance is best analyzed when compared to similar players in the bj-league. I defined “similar player” as an import player taller than 6’7” who played primarily an inside game (players with less than 1/3 of their shots from behind the arc). I then removed any player who had not played in at least 20 games or 400 minutes during the season. In the end, 37 players matched these criteria. Most of these men were at one point fringe NBA prospects, but have since made a living overseas. While only the most hardcore basketball fans will know players like Julius Ashby (Colorado ’06), George Leach (Indiana ’04), Jeff Newton (Indiana ’03), Gary Hamilton (Miami ’06), or Abdullahi Kuso (Gonzaga ’08), these are all experienced professional basketball players.

I chose to use Dave Berri’s Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) as my metric of comparison as it is:  a) straight forward; b) did not require me to crunch league-wide statistics; and c) actually took personal fouls into account. It is shocking to me that so many of the efficiency ratings out there do not use personal fouls in the calculation. Anyone who watched Tyler this season could see how big an impact his foul trouble had on his and his team’s efficiency. WS40 is calculated through the following formula: (Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls)/Total Minutes Played x 40.

Tyler ended the season with a WS40 of 10.1. His Position-Adjusted WS40 (PAWS40), though, is a meager -1.56, meaning that Tyler’s performance was below average for import post players in the bj-league. Looking at only the last 12 games of the season though shows Tyler with a PAWS40 of 3.08. This figure would place him in the top 20% of import post players in the league. As I mentioned earlier, while the other import players in the league are not household names, almost all of them played DI ball and have since played professionally all over the world. While the overall level of competition in the league may not be high, that is largely attributable to the Japanese players in the league, not the imports. Tyler had to earn hisstats playing against seasoned professional athletes, not other 18 year-olds.

Looking at the stats from various angles, it is obvious that Tyler learned a lot about basketball this year. As I mentioned before, he added an outside shot to his repertoire to go along with his spin moves in the post. It is clear that Tyler’s future is not as a back-to-the-basket post player, but more as an athletic 4 who can play out to 15-18 feet. He is most definitely a project, but at 6’10” and 245 pounds there are few prospects who can match his size and athleticism. His ceiling at this point is largely up to him. DeAndre Jordan, JaVale McGee, Amir Johnson, and Andrew Blatche have all become solid NBA players over the past few years. There is no reason to think that Tyler will not be able to at least progress to their level. Is a late 1st Round pick out of the question at this point? In a draft weak with big men I would not rule it out.   

I am slowly catching up on all the player updates. One thing I am trying to do is add video when possible. So make sure to check out those pages when you have a second.

Most people will be most interested in this: https://www.asiabasketballupdate.com/jeremy-tyler.html.

There is a new update on Jeremy Tyler in the Player Update section.

Player Update - Jeremy Tyler

4 straight games coming up 1/6-1/9, the lazy pace of the early season is over for the Apache.

Tyler had his toughest weekend of games so far this season when the Apache went up north to play the Niigata Albirex. The stats line is brutal:

10.5 mpg
1.5 ppg
0/7 fg
3/6 ft
4.5 rpg
0 spg
0 apg
0.5 bpg
3 pf per game
4 TO per game . . .

Yikes. As I stated in the first post about Jeremy Tyler, I am an optomist about his decision to play in Japan this year. So I went looking for what could explain this dismal performance, highlighted (or should I say 'low lighted') by the shocking fouls and turnover numbers. I came up with two possibilities:

1) Niigata has the strongest frontcourt he has seen all season. Julius Ashby and Zachary Andrews are both seasoned pros who don't mind banging inside. These two are the exact kind of player that Tyler is going to learn the most playing against. Hopefully next time he sees them the result is different.
2) Kendall Dartez is out injured. Dartez is the "glue guy" of the Apache. While his average of 12/7 is solid, he also helps facilitate the offense and anchors the defense. He is also a good three-point shooter and extends the defense with his range. Team members are having to adjust to different roles as a result of his absence, most notably Eaton stepping up with a huge scoring output in the series. Tyler will have to adjust his play accordingly if Dartez going to be out for a while.

There was one piece of good news on the Tyler front this week. Tyler will compete in the annual Slam Dunk contest during the bj-league All-Star weekend coming up in Osaka. Should be fun to see the highlights!

The Tokyo Apache played two games this past weekend against the Akita Northern Happinets (my vote for best team name in the league). Tyler continued his strong play in both contests, going for 18 and 6 in 24 minutes of play on Saturday night and 11 and 3 in 12 minutes on Sunday. He continues to score at an impressive rate, and his high FG % shows he is taking quality shots.

The area that still concerns me is his fouls. He is currently averaging 8 fouls per 40 minutes, or 9.6 fouls per 48 minutes. This is astronomical! To put it into context, if he was in the NBA this year he would be #2 in the league in this statistical category. I want to know where he is picking up all of these fouls. Alas, the bj-league is near impossible to find anywhere on the internet to watch.

Next up is Niigata on Dec. 11 & 12. These should be an interesting match-up for Tyler as Niigata's front line includes solid players and good size in Julius Ashby, Zachary Andrews, and Issa Konare.

We are 6 games in to Tyler’s second year of professional basketball. While I think everyone agrees that last year’s experience in Israel was a disaster, the jury is still out on how this year will turn out for Tyler. As I discussed in an earlier post, I see reason for optimism and because of that I will start off talking about the good developments of the first three weekends of action. Unfortunately my observations have been limited to game reports and box scores as I can not find a place to watch bj-league games this season yet.

The Good

Week 3 – He exploded in the two games against the Saitama Broncos this past weekend including a 27/11 output in the second match. Probably of greater note was the fact he was able to stay on the court for 26 minutes. It is reported that five of his field goals were dunks. At least we know he is playing aggressively.

The Bad (there is a little more of this than the ‘good’)

Foul Trouble – In five of the six games he has committed four fouls. Like all young players, the key to his development is experience/playing time. By getting in to foul trouble he is limiting his own ability to develop, let alone give NBA scouts time to analyze his game.

Free Throws – Only Shaq can get away with shooting 11/23 on free throws. How fundamentally sound is a player who shoots below 50% on free throws?

Turnovers - On the same line as free throws, one has to question the fundamentals of a player who is averaging 2.9 turnovers per game while on playing an average of 16 minutes per game. Is lack of high quality game experience the issue, or is he lacking court vision and game understanding?

Competition – Tyler’s explosion against Saitama came against the weakest frontline he has faced so far. Not coincidentally, Saitama signed a center the day after his big game. We will not know if this is an aberration or a sign of true development until he can repeat the performance a few more times.

Overall, I still think the four other imports on the Apache and coach Bob Hill are going to make this a good environment for Tyler. Is it as good a place to develop as a DI school? We have to wait and see.

This is a great blog post describing the path a few players have taken from the CBA to the NBA. The question of whether or not this is a viable path or not is one that I think needs to start to be discussed. One high profile player is currently using an Asian league to prepare himself for the NBA . . . smart or not?

Jeremy Tyler played his first regular season games as a member of the bj-league’s Tokyo Apache this past weekend (analysis of his play will come in a later post). Tyler’s decision to go to Japan has been panned by many after his well-publicized failures in Israel last year. The attacks on his decision have mostly been because he has decided to play in the relatively unknown bj-league in Japan. Frankly, while I am not a fan of Tyler’s decision to leave high school early (for social/emotional reasons more than anything) I think the bj-league may be the exact kind of league where a young player can gain valuable experience and improve their game. Because I am lazy I will bullet point my argument below.

• The competition. Calling the league a “Mickey Mouse” league as some observers have in the past is not accurate. While the level of ability of the Japanese players in the league is somewhat questionable, the league set up allows for three imports on the court at one time. The quality of imports in the bj-league is second in Asia to only the CBA. I did some quick research on where the foreign players in the league played their college ball and overwhelmingly the answer is D1 programs. Of the 77 of the 88 foreign players in the league listed on www.asia-basket.com, or 88%, played their collegiate ball at a D1 school (about a dozen of these players also have NBA or NBDL experience). You have to figure then that of the ten players on the court at any one time six of them are D1 level ball players. Add in a few quality Japanese players and the league looks a lot better than the image sportswriters depicted a few months back. 
• Practice. Every day in practice Tyler goes up against three experienced big men. His teammates Robert Swift, Kendall Dartez, and Michael Chappell are all quality basketball players. Robert Swift of course is the most famous after playing a few years in the NBA. He was slowed by multiple knee injuries, but looks to be making his way back into shape. Kendall Dartez played at University of Louisville and has had two separate stints in the D-League. Mike Chappell was a well-known college player who split his career between Duke and Michigan State, and has played professionally in Australia, Europe, and Japan since 2001. Not only will Tyler be able to work out against these guys every day, he can also learn from their experience.
• The Coach. There was a great article in Sports Illustrated last month that discussed why Bob Hill will be so good for Tyler’s development. Anything is going to be better than the situation in Israel last year where it sounds like he received very little instruction.
• The Culture. This is the most intangible of the arguments, but one that I feel cannot be overlooked. For a young man who has just spent the past year and a half having his life and decisions analyzed and debated, slipping away to a place where basketball is not the most popular sport could provide the mental break Tyler needs. Perhaps without a camera in his face, and overzealous fans he can spend some time actually learning how to play the game.

I understand that this is an optimistic argument, but I think we need to remember we are talking about a 19 year old KID who is learning how to be an adult, along with learning how to play a game he seems to have been built to play. I will be providing updates and analysis every two or three weeks on Tyler’s progression throughout the season.